Carnegie Middle East Center The response of EU member states to the arrival of over one million refugees, asylum seekers, and mi- ... for Refugees António Guterres to call for “a paradigm ... agencies have also helped by providing refugees with vouch
Center for Preventive Action drew attention to ... home and abroad using the full spectrum of our capabilities.’ To adequately confront ISIL, blunt its advance ... However, down the line this will also call for ac-tion beyond the Middle East and for
Draft EU Global Strategy (EUGS) papers speak of ‘taking the lead in stabilising Europe’s broad neighbourhood, including the neighbours of the neighbours’
global priorities it is helping to build a new order in the Middle East. The consequences of the region’s current chaos ... But this sentimentality should not cloud our judgment. Coercion may have saved regimes but ... programmes. In most cases, the
all. The text reads: ‘The creation of the European Union…has trans-formed the relations between our states, and the ... slaughts on European social media websites, Russian funding for right-wing parties, government-backed cybercrime, or manufactured
published daily between 15 January and 31 March on the website of the EUISS (www.iss.europa. eu) and also on the dedicated EUGS platform (https:
A new concept for civilian CSDP was agreed. Building on this concept, work is currently ongoing to complete a Civilian Capability Development Plan. By the end of the year, a Civilian CSDP Compact will set out the parameters for EU Member States and i
Expert Judgment versus Public Opinion - ... taste of the general public also has some merit.1 On one end of the spectrum, there are those
Individual Preferences, Expert Opinion and Environmental Decision Making: An overview of the issues Paper prepared for the Symposium on Law & Economics of Environmental Policy
Incorporating Expert Opinion into a Stochastic Model for the Chain-ladder Technique R.J.Verrall ... (2004) showed how the Bornhuetter-Ferguson technique
give up on its core purpose but to pursue it in ways that fit the new context. The EU should concentrate its investment where progress is possible or it is imperative to act, set intermediate goals, and mobilise a wider toolbox including all levers of power.
to ad hoc coalitions, from strategic partnerships to transnational networks. And Europe’s relationship with the US will remain central to many of these formats.
Through diversified engagement the EU should The second gap, exposed by the current refugee aim, whenever possible, to strengthen the links beemergency, is between tween inclusive institackling pressing crises tutions and mini-later‘Any sensible approach cannot be and addressing the deepcoalitions, reach out confined to technical programmes, or albeyond er, long-term trends that the circles of military force, while neglecting the have engendered them. the likeminded, seek Crisis management will political dynamics on the ground. Policies ways in which old and often be necessary, but new institutions can without politics will not work.’ must not come at the complement each othdetriment of sustainable er and aim for setting solutions. For example, there is ample evidence clear rules, beyond informal arrangements. about the drivers of fragility that can feed destaThe fourth disconnect is that between the EU and bilisation and about the cascading effects of the national policies. The political ownership of memlatter, from the Sahel to the Middle East. The EU ber states is essential to the credibility of an EU forhas a major strategic interest in enabling the condieign policy. But whether considering the European tions for lasting development and inclusive politiNeighbourhood Policy (ENP), the Common cal arrangements in its wider neighbourhood. Any Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) or the EU strasensible approach cannot be confined to technical tegic partnerships, national commitment has often programmes, or military force, while neglecting the fallen short of the goals that member states have political dynamics on the ground. Policies without jointly set for themselves. This is in part due to politics will not work. The EU will also need to entheir different strategic cultures and priorities, and gage all relevant parties, from the local to the rein part to their shared reluctance to pool resources gional and global level, helping connect sometimes and authority. disparate priorities and initiatives.
Smart multilateralism The third disconnect is that between the need for cooperation to manage interdependence, and defuse tensions, and the competition of values and priorities that nurtures zero-sum thinking on the international stage. Multilateralism is growing more contested but progress is not impossible, as the Paris agreement on climate change or the Iran nuclear deal show. The EU should adopt a flexible approach to engagement that can serve a mix of purposes – rule-making, ad hoc initiatives, confidence-building or fending off competition. Engagement can also span different formats, from formal institutions
The diversity of the EU can be an important asset. But if the creeping renationalisation of politics and policies in Europe is not reversed, external forces will turn its internal diversity into a liability. The EUGS should be part of the response to Europe’s cohesion crisis, and mark a renewed national investment in Europe’s foreign policy.