Carnegie Middle East Center The response of EU member states to the arrival of over one million refugees, asylum seekers, and mi- ... for Refugees António Guterres to call for “a paradigm ... agencies have also helped by providing refugees with vouch
So what went wrong? The problem was not Europe’s message per se, but the expectation that others, no-tably its neighbours, would more or less rally to its
Center for Preventive Action drew attention to ... home and abroad using the full spectrum of our capabilities.’ To adequately confront ISIL, blunt its advance ... However, down the line this will also call for ac-tion beyond the Middle East and for
Draft EU Global Strategy (EUGS) papers speak of ‘taking the lead in stabilising Europe’s broad neighbourhood, including the neighbours of the neighbours’
all. The text reads: ‘The creation of the European Union…has trans-formed the relations between our states, and the ... slaughts on European social media websites, Russian funding for right-wing parties, government-backed cybercrime, or manufactured
published daily between 15 January and 31 March on the website of the EUISS (www.iss.europa. eu) and also on the dedicated EUGS platform (https:
A new concept for civilian CSDP was agreed. Building on this concept, work is currently ongoing to complete a Civilian Capability Development Plan. By the end of the year, a Civilian CSDP Compact will set out the parameters for EU Member States and i
Expert Judgment versus Public Opinion - ... taste of the general public also has some merit.1 On one end of the spectrum, there are those
Individual Preferences, Expert Opinion and Environmental Decision Making: An overview of the issues Paper prepared for the Symposium on Law & Economics of Environmental Policy
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EU Global Strategy Expert Opinion
Anthony Bubalo Deputy Director and Research Director Lowy Institute for International Policy, Sydney The world is in the midst of a period of great uncertainty – one that is likely to be prolonged. The rise of China, the return of Russia, crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and transnational challenges such as climate change, terrorism and irregular migration are just a few of the complex issues on the global agenda.
rectly diagnosed. We are told that the inadequacies of US policy, the rise of Islamist groups and rivalry between regional powers are the causes of the current disorder. More commonly the finger is pointed at rising sectarianism. But what the region suffers from is less a problem of provenance, than a failure of governance. Under the old order, one-man, one-party or onefamily regimes ruled by co-option and coercion. Mostly they relied on a social contract which provided public goods in return for public loyalty. That contract was underwritten by coercive measures that either prevented dissent from arising or protected regimes when it arose.
Crafting a list of priorities for the EU’s Global Strategy on Foreign and Security Policy (EUGS) is, therefore, an unenviable task. But if there is one challenge that should be at the top of the EU’s global priorities it is helping to build a new order in the Middle East. The consequences of the region’s current chaos hardly require rehearsing: enormous humanitarian suffering (and not just in Syria and Iraq); massive waves of refugees flowing to Europe; and the empowerment of terrorist groups. To understand what the EU should do in the Middle East, first the problems need to be cor-
In most countries in the region, save a few hyper wealthy petro-monarchies, the social contract began to erode decades ago as population growth and popular expectations began to exceed economic rents. It was the breakdown of this social contract that precipitated the Arab uprisings; but it was also the performance of coercive measures – chiefly whether the security forces decided to stick with or abandon the leader – that decided
material demands of their people, but it cannot just mean new state-run, EU-funded job-creation programmes. In most cases, the private sector must become the engine of economic growth, because the state can no longer play this role. This will require both external investment and internal reform.
In the failure of the old order we can find the source of most, if not all, of the region’s current problems. Ungoverned or misgoverned spaces have created opportunities for extremists, and as governance has failed, regimes and extremists alike have stoked sectarianism in search of Because material im‘There is no single blueprint for legitimacy. Governance provements to life in failures have provided building a new order in Middle Eastern most Middle Eastern greater opportunities states. But to succeed, the process will countries will not for states to meddle in come quickly, any need to be gradual and organic.’ the internal affairs of new social contract others, provoking rewill also need to ingional power competition. clude mechanisms for broad-based consultation and participation. This does not necessarily Ironically, the regional turmoil resulting from the mean, and probably should not mean, elections Arab uprisings has made some sentimental about right away. But consultative mechanisms have to authoritarianism. Leaders have noted that heavybe real and effective enough to ensure that popuhanded coercion saves regimes. Post-uprising lar expectations of material change become realchaos has created a popular desire for stability istic. over democracy. External powers long for the days when dealing with regional counterparts There is no single blueprint for building a new meant one man, one phone call, one time. order in Middle Eastern states. But to succeed, the process will need to be gradual and organic. But this sentimentality should not cloud our The role of the EU should be to cultivate a new judgment. Coercion may have saved regimes but order from below, rather than to dictate one from an over-reliance on it has doomed countries to above. conflict and produced radicals. Once populations recover from their exhaustion, they will rememTo do that a lot of work must go into identifying ber the material and other shortcomings of the the green shoots of a new order among the debris old order. External powers may even recall why of the old one. Local examples of enterprise or authoritarian leaders were no more reliable than good governance will need to be supported politdemocratically-elected ones. ically, developmentally and financially. All of this will need to be done while navigating a complex political environment and while continuing to A new social contract manage the fallout of the old order’s collapse. The EU can help create a new model of governance in the Middle East. Central to this should be a new social contract, so that governments can once again largely rely on co-option rather than coercion to ensure stability. This will mean helping governments meet the